"And as every sci-fi nerd knows, you totally need a tricked-out battleship if you're going to engage in serious battle"

Well said Fast Company! They're referring to the AppleShip that Apple is planning on building (on 150 acres to house 12,000 Apple employees), and I have to admit, all the internet trolling I've done all definitely point to "giant Apple expansion", "Apple cult" (isn't that redundant?) or "Steve Jobs secretly was an alien trying to get home" (is it too early to make Steve Jobs jokes? He was a nice alien). I'll let everyone take their pick on which one they want to actually be the truth.

So anyway, I recently read this article in Fast Company about "The Great Tech War of 2012". I found this interesting because apparently they're totally reading my blog and saw my post about the brewing war between Amazon, Google and Apple (okay they added in Facebook, big whoop). Ha! Okay, but seriously, this article is interesting because it argues that 2012 will be the year when this battle will come to a head. Why? Well because like all wars, there is limited supply, exploding demand, and these behemoths are slowly but surely expanding into each other's turfs, and (unsurprisingly) they don't share well. Fast Company thinks Facebook will take it all, but...let's look at a break down:

Apple:

• Still dominates the tablet market (The Kindle Fire and the slew of Android attempts are making a small dent though)
• Cutting edge in terms of user experience and next-gen design, therefore has huge market share in (mostly consumer) products
• Very secretive about their growth strategy

Facebook:

• Really gunning for Google in its collection/manipulation of user data (also has "deeper" data, Google may have your search preferences, control over your email and the beginnings of social networking in their giant aggregator, but Facebook knows who your friends are, what you talk about/"Like", how you're feeling, where you check in and with their image recognition software, what you, your friends and your city all look like)
• Young and nimble (youngest of the Fab Four mentioned here)
• Has huge cult following and connection with a wide demographic base. Zuckerberg is the hunk of the nerd world, and it's not particularly hard to see why. Bottom line, he embodies the new wave of thinking and understands what future generations want

Google:

• Leadership! Larry Page is "bold, unpredictable and unapologetic". In non-PC terms, he's moody and no one really knows what he's doing or what he's planning at any given time (aka "might be a little crazy in a completely intriguing way"). Perfect qualities for someone who wants to try out for the part of Lady Macbeth or for someone who wants to run a multi-billion dollar, global company that is trying to stay nimble and effective, regardless of size
• Great partners/name recognition-- Facebook might have partnered with Netflix, Spotify, etc., but Google bought Motorola (and its underlying security division). If that's not a play to expand into hardware, I'm not sure what is...

Amazon:

• Amazon has lower margins than Google or Apple, but again, its leader (Jeff Bezos) is impressive in his uncanny ability to predict (to inform?) what consumers will want next, invest heavily, and invest early (e-readers, cloud outsourcing)
• Wider variety-- not mired as a "consumer products" company, a "search engine" or "a social networking site". They have effectively made themselves an "all of the above"

So where's my head at about all of this information? If I had to rank, I would say that Google and Amazon are really going to be the big dogs in the fight, with Amazon beating out Google this year by a hairs breadth. Here's why: the economy is still recovering and people will always need things, this could be Amazon's edge for the near future. Moreover, Amazon has already invested heavily in providing these physical objects through its e-commerce website, but also branching into intangibles (Amazon Player vs. Google Player, Amazon Kindle/Amazon Store vs. iPad/iBooks, etc.). Google, meanwhile, is still defining how to jump into the physical space (remember Google TV? Yeah, neither do we.) and in the meantime is trying to capitalize on their intangible services. Add to the mix all of Google's bad press over the past year with all of their legal troubles and they're probably going to want a small period of re-grouping/restrategizing before heading out into battle again.

In the long run however, I'd say Google and Amazon could be given a run for their money because I expect the other half of this delicious tech pie will either a.) begin a partnering spree to inflate their market share or (this is kind of crazy so prepare yourself) b.) partner with each other. I know...you're thinking I've finally lost it. But hear me out. Apple has great name recognition, huge market share in consumer products but struggles to harness and analyze the data that they receive. Enter Facebook, who is almost the father of hyper-targeted mini-ads. For a company that focuses so much on the end user and their relationship witih the company, it would make sense that they'd like to date a company like Facebook (aka integrate with a heavy-hitting social media stakeholder).

So what's in it for Facebook? A tangible piece of hardware in a large percentage of the highly affluent market. An "in" to a company that already knows how to capitalize on "add-ons" (did you know that analysts estimate Apple to make $368 on the iPhone through the subsidies that are paid back to them through wireless carriers whereas Google makes less than $10 annually/device due to its subsidies for market share? Granted, Google focuses on profit through ad revenue, which is a smaller margin, but higher in volume. But still. ). A company that has a ton of data on user preferences and hardware manufacturing connections to back it up.

So what if I'm Google and I'm breathing down the neck of Amazon? Or what if I'm Amazon and victory is justthiscloseIcantasteit? Find new revenue streams. Target the emerging markets (China, India, Brazil in particular where there are growing middle classes/growing appetite for digital media/huge investments in wireless infrastructure). My suggestion for a first step? Get into people's homes in a big way. There's a lot swirling around about integrating payment systems into TVs so that the buying experience becomes an integral part of everyday behavior-- and not just with digital goods. If you can convince consumers that you're there to take care of them (buying, selling, socializing, suggest, etc.), listen to their feedback to adapt and offer them the convenience of being physically present in their home...it could be the end of the Fab Four.